Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall in the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday evening with 156 mph winds pushing water inland.

Two weeks ago, Hurricane Helene “spared” the Tampa Bay region a direct hit and yet storm surge still caused catastrophic damage, flooding homes, drowning people who decided to stay near the coast and leaving massive piles of debris that still sit along roadsides.

With reverse storm surge, especially in larger storms, the opposite happens, explained AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in 2022, after Ian hit. “It can pull the water out because the wind flow is coming from land to ocean, and it pushes the water,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”

A 2023 study found nearly half of all fatalities in landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. between 1963 and 2012 were the result of storm surge flooding.

Florida’s Tampa Bay region is expected to face 10-15 feet of peak storm surge from Hurricane Milton, projected to make landfall Wednesday night. The storm was a “very strong Category 5” Monday before dropping to a Category 4 overnight.

You can see the possible catastrophic impact that the storm surge from Hurricane Milton could have on Florida this week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a “Sea Level Rise Viewer” that allows you to choose a storm surge height and see how that would affect the entire country.

In response, the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay office released a succinct, stark video showing the consequences of the looming hurricane, which exploited warm waters and favorable conditions to intensify into a monstrous cyclone.

According to the latest forecast from the National hurricane Center, parts of the Florida coast could see a massive storm surge.

It’s hard to find much of a forecast cause for optimism. Milton will combine a generational surge threat to west-central Florida with widespread wind impacts and flash flooding.

As Hurricane Milton intensified on its path toward Florida's Gulf Coast, the strength of the system increased the severity of the storm surge forecast.